[Justin Walker] We’re constantly analyzing memory requirements of the latest games and regularly review with game developers to understand their memory needs for current and upcoming games. The goal of 3080 is to give you great performance at up to 4k resolution with all the settings maxed out at the best possible price.When the slide says RTX 3070 is equal or faster than 2080 Ti, are we talking about traditional rasterization or DLSS/RT workloads? Very important if you could clear it up, since no traditional rasterization benchmarks were shown, only RT/DLSS supporting games.
In order to do this, you need a very powerful GPU with high speed memory and enough memory to meet the needs of the games. A few examples - if you look at Shadow of the Tomb Raider, Assassin’s Creed Odyssey, Metro Exodus, Wolfenstein Youngblood, Gears of War 5, Borderlands 3 and Red Dead Redemption 2 running on a 3080 at 4k with Max settings (including any applicable high res texture packs) and RTX On, when the game supports it, you get in the range of 60-100fps and use anywhere from 4GB to 6GB of memory.
Extra memory is always nice to have but it would increase the price of the graphics card, so we need to find the right balance.
[Justin Walker] We are talking about both. Games that only support traditional rasterization and games that support RTX (RT+DLSS).Does Ampere support HDMI 2.1 with the full 48Gbps bandwidth?
[Qi Lin] Yes. The NVIDIA Ampere Architecture supports the highest HDMI 2.1 link rate of 12Gbs/lane across all 4 lanes, and supports Display Stream Compression (DSC) to be able to power up to 8K, 60Hz in HDR.Could you elaborate a little on this doubling of CUDA cores? How does it affect the general architectures of the GPCs? How much of a challenge is it to keep all those FP32 units fed? What was done to ensure high occupancy?
[Tony Tamasi] One of the key design goals for the Ampere 30-series SM was to achieve twice the throughput for FP32 operations compared to the Turing SM. To accomplish this goal, the Ampere SM includes new datapath designs for FP32 and INT32 operations. One datapath in each partition consists of 16 FP32 CUDA Cores capable of executing 16 FP32 operations per clock. Another datapath consists of both 16 FP32 CUDA Cores and 16 INT32 Cores. As a result of this new design, each Ampere SM partition is capable of executing either 32 FP32 operations per clock, or 16 FP32 and 16 INT32 operations per clock. All four SM partitions combined can execute 128 FP32 operations per clock, which is double the FP32 rate of the Turing SM, or 64 FP32 and 64 INT32 operations per clock.Any idea if the dual airflow design is going to be messed up for inverted cases? More than previous designs? Seems like it would blow it down on the cpu. But the CPU cooler would still blow it out the case. Maybe it’s not so bad.
Doubling the processing speed for FP32 improves performance for a number of common graphics and compute operations and algorithms. Modern shader workloads typically have a mixture of FP32 arithmetic instructions such as FFMA, floating point additions (FADD), or floating point multiplications (FMUL), combined with simpler instructions such as integer adds for addressing and fetching data, floating point compare, or min/max for processing results, etc. Performance gains will vary at the shader and application level depending on the mix of instructions. Ray tracing denoising shaders are good examples that might benefit greatly from doubling FP32 throughput.
Doubling math throughput required doubling the data paths supporting it, which is why the Ampere SM also doubled the shared memory and L1 cache performance for the SM. (128 bytes/clock per Ampere SM versus 64 bytes/clock in Turing). Total L1 bandwidth for GeForce RTX 3080 is 219 GB/sec versus 116 GB/sec for GeForce RTX 2080 Super.
Like prior NVIDIA GPUs, Ampere is composed of Graphics Processing Clusters (GPCs), Texture Processing Clusters (TPCs), Streaming Multiprocessors (SMs), Raster Operators (ROPS), and memory controllers.
The GPC is the dominant high-level hardware block with all of the key graphics processing units residing inside the GPC. Each GPC includes a dedicated Raster Engine, and now also includes two ROP partitions (each partition containing eight ROP units), which is a new feature for NVIDIA Ampere Architecture GA10x GPUs. More details on the NVIDIA Ampere architecture can be found in NVIDIA’s Ampere Architecture White Paper, which will be published in the coming days.
[Qi Lin] The new flow through cooling design will work great as long as chassis fans are configured to bring fresh air to the GPU, and then move the air that flows through the GPU out of the chassis. It does not matter if the chassis is inverted.Will the 30 series cards be supporting 10bit 444 120fps ? Traditionally Nvidia consumer cards have only supported 8bit or 12bit output, and don’t do 10bit. The vast majority of hdr monitors/TVs on the market are 10bit.
The Founders Edition RTX 3090 is quieter than both the Titan RTX and the Founders Edition RTX 2080 Super. We haven’t tested it against specific partner designs, but I think you’ll be impressed with what you hear… or rather, don’t hear. :-)
[Qi Lin] The 30 series supports 10bit HDR. In fact, HDMI 2.1 can support up to [email protected] with 12bit HDR, and that covers 10bit HDR displays.What breakthrough in tech let you guys massively jump to the 3xxx line from the 2xxx line? I knew it would be scary, but it's insane to think about how much more efficient and powerful these cards are. Can these cards handle 4k 144hz?
[Justin Walker] There were major breakthroughs in GPU architecture, process technology and memory technology to name just a few. An RTX 3080 is powerful enough to run certain games maxed out at 4k 144fps - Doom Eternal, Forza 4, Wolfenstein Youngblood to name a few. But others - Red Dead Redemption 2, Control, Borderlands 3 for example are closer to 4k 60fps with maxed out settings.What kind of advancements can we expect from DLSS? Most people were expecting a DLSS 3.0, or, at the very least, something like DLSS 2.1. Are you going to keep improving DLSS and offer support for more games while maintaining the same version?
DLSS SDK 2.1 is out and it includes three updates:How bad would it be to run the 3080 off of a split connector instead of two separate cable. would it be potentially dangerous to the system if I’m not overclocking?
- New ultra performance mode for 8K gaming. Delivers 8K gaming on GeForce RTX 3090 with a new 9x scaling option.
- VR support. DLSS is now supported for VR titles.
- Dynamic resolution support. The input buffer can change dimensions from frame to frame while the output size remains fixed. If the rendering engine supports dynamic resolution, DLSS can be used to perform the required upscale to the display resolution.
The recommendation is to run two individual cables. There’s a diagram here. https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/geforce/graphics-cards/30-series/rtx-3080/?nvmid=systemcomp
[Tony Tamasi] NVIDIA delivered high-speed I/O solutions for a variety of data analytics platforms roughly a year ago with NVIDIA GPU DirectStorage. It provides for high-speed I/O between the GPU and storage, specifically for AI and HPC type applications and workloads. For more information please check out: https://developer.nvidia.com/blog/gpudirect-storage/Does RTX IO allow use of SSD space as VRAM? Or am I completely misunderstanding?
[Tony Tamasi] RTX IO allows reading data from SSD’s at much higher speed than traditional methods, and allows the data to be stored and read in a compressed format by the GPU, for decompression and use by the GPU. It does not allow the SSD to replace frame buffer memory, but it allows the data from the SSD to get to the GPU, and GPU memory much faster, with much less CPU overhead.Will there be a certain ssd speed requirement for RTX I/O?
[Tony Tamasi] There is no SSD speed requirement for RTX IO, but obviously, faster SSD’s such as the latest generation of Gen4 NVMe SSD’s will produce better results, meaning faster load times, and the ability for games to stream more data into the world dynamically. Some games may have minimum requirements for SSD performance in the future, but those would be determined by the game developers. RTX IO will accelerate SSD performance regardless of how fast it is, by reducing the CPU load required for I/O, and by enabling GPU-based decompression, allowing game assets to be stored in a compressed format and offloading potentially dozens of CPU cores from doing that work. Compression ratios are typically 2:1, so that would effectively amplify the read performance of any SSD by 2x.Will the new GPUs and RTX IO work on Windows 7/8.1?
[Tony Tamasi] RTX 30-series GPUs are supported on Windows 7 and Windows 10, RTX IO is supported on Windows 10.I am excited for the RTX I/O feature but I partially don't get how exactly it works? Let's say I have a NVMe SSD, a 3070 and the latest Nvidia drivers, do I just now have to wait for the windows update with the DirectStorage API to drop at some point next year and then I am done or is there more?
[Tony Tamasi] RTX IO and DirectStorage will require applications to support those features by incorporating the new API’s. Microsoft is targeting a developer preview of DirectStorage for Windows for game developers next year, and NVIDIA RTX gamers will be able to take advantage of RTX IO enhanced games as soon as they become available.
[Gerardo Delgado] NVIDIA Broadcast is a universal plugin app that enhances your microphone, speakers and camera with AI features such as noise reduction, virtual background, and auto frame. You basically select your devices as input, decide what AI effect to apply to them, and then NVIDIA Broadcast exposes virtual devices in your system that you can use with popular livestream, video chat, or video conference apps.Will there be any improvements to the RTX encoder in the Ampere series cards, similar to what we saw for the Turing Release? I did see info on the Broadcast software, but I'm thinking more along the lines of improvements in overall image quality at same bitrate.
NVIDIA Broadcast does not record or stream video and is not a replacement for GFE/Shadowplay
[Jason Paul] For RTX 30 Series, we decided to focus improvements on the video decode side of things and added AV1 decode support. On the encode side, RTX 30 Series has the same great encoder as our RTX 20 Series GPU. We have also recently updated our NVIDIA Encoder SDK. In the coming months, livestream applications will be updating to this new version of the SDK, unlocking new performance options for streamers.I would like to know more about the new NVENC -- were there any upgrades made to this technology in the 30 series? It seems to be the future of streaming, and for many it's the reason to buy nvidia card rather than any other.
[Gerardo Delgado] The GeForce RTX 30 Series leverages the same great hardware encoder as the GeForce RTX 20 Series. We have also recently updated our Video Codec SDK to version 10.0. In the coming months, applications will be updating to this new version of the SDK, unlocking new performance options.Regarding AV1 decode, is that supported on 3xxx series cards other than the 3090? In fact can this question and dylan522p question on support level be merged into: What are the encode/decode features of Ampere and do these change based on which 3000 series card is bought?
[Gerardo Delgado] All of the GeForce RTX 30 Series GPUs that we announced today have the same encoding and decoding capabilities:
- They all feature the 7th Gen NVIDIA Encoder (the one that we released with the RTX 20 Series), which will use our newly released Video Codec SDK 10.0. This new SDK will be integrated in the coming months by the live streaming apps, unlocking new presets with more performance options.
- They all have the new 5th Gen NVIDIA Decoder, which enables AV1 hardware accelerated decode on GPU. AV1 consumes 50% less bandwidth and unlocks up to 8K HDR video playback without a big performance hit on your CPU.
[Richard Kerris] We are actively working with game developers on support for Omniverse Machinima and will have more details to share along with public beta in October.
Omniverse Machinima can be run locally on a GeForce RTX desktop PC or in the cloud. The benefit of running Omniverse from the cloud is easier real-time collaboration across users.
[Stanley Tack] A CUDA update will be needed for some renderers. We have been working closely with the major creative apps on these updates and expect the majority (hopefully all!) to be ready on the day these cards hit the shelves.
[Seth Schneider] NVIDIA Reflex is both. The NVIDIA Reflex Latency Analyzer is a revolutionary new addition to the G-SYNC Processor that enables end to end system latency measurement. Additionally, NVIDIA Reflex SDK is integrated into games and enables a Low Latency mode that can be used by GeForce GTX 900 GPUs and up to reduce system latency. Each of these features can be used independently.Is NVIDIA Reflex just a rebranding of NVIDIA’s Ultra Low Latency mode in the NVIDIA Control Panel?
No, NVIDIA Reflex is different. Ultra Low Latency mode is a control panel option, whereas NVIDIA Reflex gets integrated by a game developer directly into the game. Through native game integration and enhanced algorithms, NVIDIA Reflex is much more effective in optimizing a game’s rendering pipeline for lowest latency.The Ultra Low Latency mode supported CS:GO and Rainbow Six:Siege, why doesn’t NVIDIA Reflex?
See our Reflex article here to learn more: https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/geforce/news/reflex-low-latency-platform/
Unlike the NVIDIA Ultra Low Latency mode, NVIDIA Reflex provides an SDK that the developers must integrate. Having our technology directly in the game engine allows us to align game simulation and render work in a way that streamlines latency. We’ve currently announced support coming for top games including Fortnite, Valorant, Apex Legends, Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold War, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare, Call of Duty: Warzone, and Destiny 2. We look forward to adding as many titles as possible to our supported title list.Does NVIDIA Reflex lower FPS performance to reduce latency?
The industry has long optimized for FPS, so much so that there have been massive latency trade-offs made to squeeze out every last 0.5% FPS improvement. NVIDIA Reflex takes a new look at optimizing the rendering pipeline for end to end system latency. While our research shows that latency is the key metric for aim precision and reaction speed, we understand FPS is still an important metric; so NVIDIA Reflex aims to reduce latency while maintaining FPS. In the majority of cases, Reflex can achieve latency reduction without any FPS impact. In a few cases, gamers may see small 0-2% FPS impacts alongside larger latency gains -- a good tradeoff for competitive games. Of course, Reflex is a setting in-game, so gamers can choose for themselves. Based on our testing though, we believe you’ll find little reason to ever play with it off.
System performance is impacted by many factors and the impact varies between applications. The impact is typically less than a few percent going from a x16 PCIE 4.0 to x16 PCIE 3.0. CPU selection often has a larger impact on performance.We look forward to new platforms that can fully take advantage of Gen4 capabilities for potential performance increases.
Updated version, added some content creators and info at the bottom based on feedback.
We are almost ready for the first Free2Play weekend and I'm excited to see how many players will be playing Rocket League. One thing is for sure: The Rocket League server admins are in for a busy weekend!
I realize that there is a lot of information in this post and it can be a bit overwhelming so I've selected some excellent and 'easy to digest' content to get you started. This way you can get back to playing the game in no time and check back here later.
Lethamyr taking you through the initial setup of Rocket League.
Choosing your car -by SunlessKahn
Beginners guide to Rocket League -by SquishyMuffinz
And if you do nothing else then at least: learn about camera settings
|Rocketleague.com||The official Rocket League site, they have a great support page with FAQ section|
|Rocketleagueesports.com||All you need to know about Rocket League Esports|
|Rocket League's twitter account is a great place to stay informed about small patches and server problems|
|Psyonix shares community highlights and news items here, just don't look in the comments.|
|Rocket League||The main Rocket League subreddit.|
|Rocket League Esports||The sub dedicated to RL Esports, you'll see a lot of pros on here joining the discussion.|
|Rocket League Exchange||Want to trade items? This is a good subreddit to start getting into trading.|
|Rocket League Fashion advice||Post (or steal) some design ideas here so you can look extra fly while flying.|
|Rocket League School||Great community for players looking to improve.|
|Fandom Wiki||A Rocket League Wiki with lots of information|
|Liquipedia||A lot of information on Rocket League Esports|
|FAQ||What is MMR||What are item certifications|
|What are Ranks||What are item rarities|
|What are Hit boxes||What are season rewards|
|What are Rotations||What are server regions|
|What is Boost management||How do I trade items|
|All the mechanics||How do bans work|
|Guides and tutorials||From Dignitas||From Reddit/other|
|Getting started in Rocket League||Huge list of Rocket League tutorials for Beginners and Advanced|
|Take your gameplay to the next level||An In-depth Guide to Becoming Good at Rocket League|
|Top 5 training packs - concistency||A Guide to the Metagame: Momentum, Pressure, and Defensive Tips|
|How to defend your backboard||All Rocket League moves / skills with descriptions, links to tutorials, and organised|
|Skills you need to reach GC||Playing the Last Man Role: A Guide for All Skill Levels|
|Dribbling (And How To ACTUALLY Do It Well)|
|A comprehensive guide to reach Grand Champion|
|Gregans guide to rotations|
|Advanced Guide to Boost Management and Flow|
|Improving through Training Packs|
|Rocket-league.com Garage||A great website to trade with other players|
|Rocket-league.com Shop||Here you can see what’s in the Rocket League shop right now and previously|
|RLinsider.gg||Check the item prices here|
|Exchange subreddit||A subreddit for trading|
|Reddit post||A post on how not to get scammed, what to look out for|
|Item list||What are rarities|
|What are certifications||How do you trade in|
|What is the item shop||What is the Esports shop|
|What are season rewards||What is the Rocket Pass|
|BakkesMod||A must have mod for Rocket League, insanely good||Watch tutorial|
|BakkesPlugins||The plugins that you can install on BakkesMod|
|Workshops (Steam)||If you have the game on Steam client you can install workshop maps||Read how to|
|Air race Mod||A really cool Air Race Mod||Watch trailer|
|Rocket League Tracker||A in-game overlay that shows you player tracker information||Screenshot|
|GifYourGame||A app to instantly create gifs of your goals|
|Outplayed||Same as GifYourGame but different, auto records all goals|
|Ballchasing.com||Upload an analyse your replays, has a cool 3d replay viewer||FAQ|
|Calculated.gg||Like Ballchasing but with a slightly different approach|
|Amustycow||Inventor of the musty flip and has some great tutorials - RLSpotlight||link||link|
|Athena||One of the biggest female RL streamers - RLSpotlight||link||link|
|Fluump||Need a Top10 list? search no more! - RLSpotlight||link|
|Gibbs||Mr Rocket League Esports||link||link|
|SubparbutinHD||Tutorials, Montages and Gameplay||link||link|
|ItsJSTN||Pro player famous for these goals from RLCS season 5 and RLCS season 8||link||link|
|Jessie||Fails to fall in to any category||link||link|
|JHZER||Pro player and Freestyle king - RLSpotlight||link||link|
|JohnnyBoi_i||Great guy and great content - Get your 1v1 showmatch fix here||link||link|
|Jon Sandman||High energy and positive, first with a million subs -RLSpotlight||link||link|
|Kronovi||Veteran Pro player||link||link|
|Lethamyr||The definition of content creator||link||link|
|Rocket Science||Everything you didn't know you needed to know||link||link|
|Scrub Killa||Pro player and known for his 1's domination||link||link|
|Sunless Khan||Really cool and diverse content, known for his 'Why you suck at rocket league' series - RLSpotlight||link||link|
|Virge||Pro Rocket league coach||link||link|
|Others||Rocket League FX, Spoodah, CBell, Rocket Sledge, Linkuru, Mertzy|
There is mostly stuff for back-end. When there is some sort of overload of back-end the game doesn't feel well - you can't even exit the raid and all sorts of bullcrap is happening. So we added more logs, more debugging info and many little techincal bits and pieces.- BSG team had a brief excercise in fast patch deploy and will strive to be faster in the future
We wrote it's gonna be 3 hours, but in fact it was 1,5 hours. So we want to be faster in that regard. Some people think the game is being patched magically by itself. There are times when we do something and it takes a long time. One time we were patching for about 6 hours, it's was very long. So we'll try to train ourself to deploy faster.- Nikita is slowly getting mad in quarantine, so he wears a plate carrier all day long to lose some weight.
I am already recieving messages with potential exploits that people can try to use. See, here's the deal! We are making a game, all we want to do is to make the game. We don't frickin' need to "close the holes", fight with cheaters and so on. We are wasting a ton of time on this. Sure, you can say "UgH, tHeSe ArE mOdErN oNlInE gAmEs, ThEy MuSt HaVe PrOtEcTiOn FrOm ChEaTeRs" and you'll be right. But not to the point of allotting to it a third of all working time or even more.- Pre-wipe events are going to be announced right before the wipe.
Instead of making a functional system we must empirically and practically seek out all exploits by ourselves and with the help of the players and patch them. And we still won't patch them all. But you know what would happen when someone will find the exploit? They are going to blame us and say that we are lazy pieces of shit, that we do nothing.
In fact, right now we are delaying 12.6 because we are closing potential exploits in the new system. (Update regarding the delay at the end of the translation)
We are working with BattleEye and making our own little subsystems that are designed to insure BattleEye is working properly. Right now everything that I recieve from acqueintances regarding cheaters, like "check this guy and that guy and those", I send to BattleEye and they say "Oh, they are already banned" or "They are in the banwave list". And it's very often that people ask to check those who are either already banned or in the little incoming banwave.- BSG is working on traffic encryption
BattleEye has its own internal system and strategy that they don't even talk to us in detail. There are times when the new cheat appears, but BattleEye doesn't act right away. It "marinates" the cheaters and collects the list of them to later ban them all in one banwave. Instant bans are implemented for some cheats, for others they are not implemented. BattleEye is mostly working by itself. We can send them videos with cheaters from the forums and information regarding them, that's it.
Some people think that we ban people when we watch videos. This is false. We send videos and Player IDs to BattleEye's special team and then they identify and analyze them.
Some cheats are using alternative environment to analyze the information. For those kinds of cheats traffic needs to be encrypted. We are working on it. Not many game developers practice it. So we've decided to do it and we've been working on it for the past month. It's a serious thing and it heavily affects CPU, so we are trying to optimise it so that the client and the decoder won't go nuts.- Most of the cheats on the Internet don't work
To those who are sceptical about anticheat's capabilty - you can search working hacks yourself. *everyone chuckles*- There's a person on Youtube that baits people into buying outdated hacks by buying channels and streaming old cheating footage. BSG is not happy about it
Oh, I'm not saying that you need to test them, just search for sites that say they are working.
95% of all sites that you'll see have hacks that don't work at all, even if they say otherwise.
There's a new thing that's been going on recently. There's a Youtube channel with a stream going on. Big red LIVE in the corner, 16k botted viewers, all that stuff. It's a prerecorded video. The guy buys channels with 500-600 subscribers and streams it on purpose. And he actually sells nothing, no cheats. He even wrote "Why are you striking my videos, why ban me? I am not doing something bad, I am actually helping you! I don't sell cheats, really. You get the money and the cheater is punished!" That's insane. We've already banned thousands of those videos. We have the legal department that quickly sends info to Youtube.- New economy is going to deal with resellers and add a new layer towards a greater future goal
Buddy, if you are watching this - please stop wasting your and everyone's time. The thing you are doing is not nice.
Right now everything is out of stock because of resellers. When reselling disappears there's going to be much more equipment for sale. If we take 10 players that actively play EFT and use flea market 8 of them buy the stock and immediately sell it, they don't even need it. But they know they'll gain extra 70 RUB from each bullet.- New iterations of economy are designed to slow down the accumulation of top tier loot
First, right now this situation is nonexistent. You'll need to craft the ammo, put it on flea market and it's much harder than it looks. With the added limit to buying per restock everything is going to be okay.
Second, we'll be looking into it all, how it's going to play out. If there's going to be some super deficit we'll try to regulate it.
Third, we are gradually moving on to the automatically regulated economy. I've been talking about it many times. Traders are going to be deciding what to do by themselves. If they see that the product is being sold out they'll increase the prices. If the product is being sold out regularly they'll decrease the amount you can buy per restock or even stop selling the product at all.
It's a vurtual in-game economy regulated by trader "pseudo people". Anything can happen. A number of items can disapper due to unforseen outocomes, events and the economy's unpredictability.
It's a new reality that you need to deal with. We don't want to create a refined system in which "these bullets cost this much, those cost that much, I know I'm going to buy that item for that much, so on and so on". It's not interesting. Especially regarding top-tier loot like armor and ammo. Our mission is to slow down and make it harder to obtain high level stuff. With every new wipe we are trying to make in-game cycle more organic and smooth.- 12.6 is going to be a special patch that will change how the game is played
12.6 is very important and not like the past ones. There is a bunch of new systems implemented like overweight, fatigue, trading of crafted and found in raid items. And it's a clear representation of your work. A player would be able to craft items in the hideout and contribute to the system. A real supplier and not just a reseller.- Nikita dislikes people who try to get rich in a short amount of time after wipe.
The economical system is pretty balanced, but because of certain people that are used to playing EFT differently and gaining advantage by using legit and prohibited methods, it's all coming apart. We don't want to see people racing each other for high value loot to become rich in a short amount of time. It's not right!- Nikita wants each player to have a certain role in the game and not become the jack of all trades.
You can say that it's life, that it happens. Damn, in our situation it's not the concept and gameplay that we wanted to implement. We want to make it harder, more complex. We want you, the player, to decide.
We don't want you to become the master of all skills, super trader, super killer, a know it all. When I was designing the game I had vision in mind that each player going through the game cycle would have his own place in it. Like "I haven't completed all quests but I've become a pro at certain skills". The limitations are designed to not let people become superheroes, like they are used to in all games. People must find their calling, just like in real life.- To add more to the new found in raid only flea market, BSG will reduce the amount of items traders sell.
Why and how from the point of playable realism there must exist a rule "I must be able to find every loot in raid" ?- Nikita is not in a hurry with adding new content, trying to implement it gradually
First, you need to level up the traders, to spend your time and resources on them.
Second, 75% of all loot is spawned in any way.
And here's the thing we'll be implementing. Almost all loot in 12.6 is going to be spawnable on locations and AI, it won't be sold. There are going to be new gear elements that will spawn on scavs, raiders and guards.
We are trying to "smear" added content. There are lots of planned top tier armor, but from time to time I just add a new rig, new backpack. For example, there is going to be a backpack that has about the same amount of slots as Berkut, but it looks cooler in black camo. It looks cool, but you can't buy it, just find on a scav.- New AI-driven UN soldiers are planned for the future
"Was Med Pack added to the game for shits and giggles?"- Crafting system is going to be redesigned to allow more crafting recipes
"YES... But really, why was it implemented. Some time in the future we'll add AI UN squads that would have machine gunners, medics, something like that. And these backpacks are going to spawn on those medics."
Everything is planned out. Most of the top tier ammo can be crafted already. And we'll add even more ways. Why are we not adding it now? To be honest, we want to redesign it all because there's simply too many crafting recipes. We need to make a new slick interface. We'll add more variants of crafting to ammo.- New loot spawns and redone old spawns. Dynamic loot is done, but will be added in the future.
We need to rebalance loot, that's what we are doing right now. In 12.6 there are going to be new loot spawns, old spawns are going to be redone. And we have lots of task regarding dynamic distribution of loot. It's done, but why it wasn't added in this patch... we had no time, that's all! It would probably be added in 12.7 or 12.8.- Nvidia Freestyle is going to be prohibited.
"Some players are using old Nvidia Freestyle because it's less FPS-hungry than new PostFX. But we all know that Freestyle gives an unfair advantage. What is BSG's position on those people and the usage of Freestyle?"- Test servers with Unity 2019 and C++ engine builds are planned.
"Our position is simple - we'll prohibit it with BattleEye. Just like we prohibited Reshade.
To be honest, we have done the techical servers already. And we have the need to use them. We are planning to release a special build of the game on Unity 2019. It's going to be the same game, but on another engine. If you want to try it out you'll need to actively submit tickets with bugs, not just play the game. Also we need people that play alot and know alot about the game, so they would spot inaccuracies right away. Also the C++ engine build is planned for testing.- Maps with just Scav and PMC extracts would be added when all maps are done
"I've tried hundreds of times to exit at the scav-pmc exfil, but only managed it once."- Karma system for PMCs and Scavs is written down, but will be implemented when almost all bosses are added.
"Ok, I get it. But imagine that EVERY exfil is going to need both a scav and a PMC"
"Oh, then the question is when it's going to be implemented?"
"I would say after all maps are done."
The karma system for Scavs is planned. Moreover, we want to make DLC in the future about scav's life. In it you're going to be able to play as a boss, so on and so on. And karma is very tightly knit around playing as a boss. A player Scav can kill the boss and leave. In this instance the karma is going to affect the player very heavily - from increased cooldown to your presence already known to the boss when you enter his area.- Arena mode about fighting a group of bosses is planned
Karma system is written down. But we don't implement it yet because we first need to add not all, but about 80% of the bosses to locations.
Bosses are very cool. It's going to be very fun gunning them in Arena. There's going to be a mode in which you'll fight with a group of bosses. With each new boss we are trying to add new AI, new behaviour. And it's going to be interesting how those AI's interact with each other.- New boss Sanitar on Shoreline.
Right now we are making the Sanitar (UAP, Paramedic, Aidman) who's going to appear in 12.7. His behavior is ill, to say. He aids people, makes stashes, hides items. He's interesting!- Voicelines for Scavs planned, not just current muttering
For Scavs we have everything recorded just like for PMCs except for specific situations. So yeah, it's planned.- First addition of Steam Audio will be in 12.6
Sound! When is the sound going to be redone!?- Bosses will have their own voicelines
The first iteration of the new sound is going to be implemented in 12.6.
Bosses' voices are being recorded. We already have the voice of Reshala.- Someone wants to voice a character? Write to BSG and nominate that person!
If you want a certain famous guy to voice someone - post it on Twitter, add hashtags, write to us. Make some noise. In short, if the person wants it, I am all for it. I don't want to pay a lot of money and get inexpressive, protocol work. I want the man to really desire it.- PostFX presets maybe coming out
If you have ideas - write to us on Twitter. Our PR guy is going to look through them and send them to the team
"Are there going to be presets for PostFX?"- Presets for flea market? Nikita is gonna think about it.
"I've seen a bunch of requests for presets, even for certain locations. I don't know, I think it's too much. But I'll think about it.
"Can we get presets for flea market filters?"- PostFX also working in the menu is planned
"I'll write it down"
It can be done so PostFX will work in the menu, it's planned. It's just it's going to be harder to implement.- War belts are planned to be added after plate carriers and rigs are remade.
"When are War belts are going to be added in the game? And would it be possible to add them before the plates system?- Chest rig customization would allow to display the contents of the pouches.
"I personally don't like war belts. Just because I'm not comfortable wearing them, that's all. It's just me, I'm a damn well-fed tactical. The more I carry, the worse I feel. I can't jump from trench to trench like a mongoose.
In short - war belts are planned. But after the remake of plate carriers, customization of chest rigs and so on.
We almost confirmed the design of chest rigs' customization. It's a serious task. It's going to be done before patch 13.0. We'll be doing for a long time, 3 or 4 patches. It's a complex system with a full-fleged interface. There are lots of questions about optimizing it all, so you won't need to render millions of pouches, bake them. And we also want to make so that the contents of the pouches would be visible, but there are many subtleties. Pouches are different, mags are different. Long, short, thick, thin. We'll need to code a system that automatically scales and moves it all. Clipping will be present for sure, but we'll try to minimize it. It's one of my most awaited features.- Decorative elements for chest rigs.
There are going to be decorative elements for rigs. Like this spring hook *grabs a spring hook on the plate carrier he is wearing*. You'll be able to buy lots of them and cover your torso with them.- BSG will not introduce quests to increase pockets slot count.
AND YOU'LL GET WHAT? CHAINMAIL!
"There were suggestions about adding more slots to pockets for completing special tasks, like kill each boss 100 times and get double the amount of slots for pockets"- New clothes for PMCs and Scavs in 12.6
"I heard that. But here's the deal, then it's going to be meta. Everybody is going to be using one pair of pants, one jacket. And we don't have many of them."
We can add all sorts of clothes to Scavs. We can add something like... smear Vaseline on yourelf 8000 times and get workpants with rubber boots for PMC! You'll be running around in a plate carrier and rubber boots, yeah.- UN troops will make it harder for you to traverse the map.
In 12.6 we'll add new clothes to both USEC and BEAR and one jacket for Scav.
UN troops are going to be controlling and dividing the map so you won't be able to go around freely. And they'll have features tied to working with Peacekeeper.- Since the start of EFT bugtracking program there has been over 13k collected tickets.
Y'know how many tasks we have? Since the start of bugtracking program we've accumulated... let's see what's the number of the most recent ticket... 13049! It's a shitload!- There is going to be a guide on how to properly write a bugreport
In Contract Wars we waited 2,5 years to get to 1000th ticket! Bonkers, man.
"You said that there are only 10-20% of decent bugreports, everything else is garbage. Is there going to be a guide how to write a good report?"- Nikita is adamant about adding VOIP to EFT. But they'll be testing it anyway.
"Okay, I hope the support team is watching the podcast. Please tell them to make an article on how to properly write bugreports so you'll become a tester on TTS"
VOIP was planned a long time ago, it was a must have in the game. But I've watched a bunch of new multiplayer games like Squad and so on. You'd think they are cool tacticool guys, but even then... huuuh...- Player report system is planned
There is certainly going to be a guy that would turn on a loud gay porn and it would annoy other players. We'll be making and testing VOIP anyway. To combat such abusers maybe we'll implement report system.
"Regarding the report system - is it going to be like in PUBG that you can report a suspicious player?"- Player reports will not get people banned right away
"Yeah, it's a system that's planned to be implemented in a near future. You can report a player for suspicious activity, potential cheats, inappropriate nickname and also you can report a lagging server. The last one will be useful for us.
Don't even think that people are going to be banned with reports, it's not going to be that dumb. Dude gets flooded with reports and gets banned, nothing like that. It's going to be a secondary system. If the player has an inappropriate nickname first he is forced to change it and after that he gets banned if he does it again.- Secure container changes not in 12.6. Maybe will be tested in pre-wipe.
So here's a situation - let's say there is a super private cheat that costs 80k a year, no one knows anything. From that there's lots of data, lots of reports on that guy. Then we track him - here he has strange speed, there he gets too many headshots. And all of that together gives us a reason to act. Not on that single guy, but the whole cheat. We detect by analyzing the client and server data and say that this guy is a cheater and BattleEye then does everything to get hardware proof that this guy indeed is using a cheat."
I had an idea about not allowing to store trading items in the secure container in 12.6. But sensing how someone would explode if it was added, I decided not to. Maybe it will be added to test it during pre-wipe.- Compass is planned in 12.7-12.8
Compass is planned in 12.7-12.8.- New added land on Customs will be added in space inbetween Old gas station to Construction site
The patch of land from the Old Gas Station to Construciton site - that's how much is going to be added on Customs. With buildings, so on. They have detalisation that other maps don't, I asked the team to decrease it, so it won't stick out.- Shoreline in its first version was even more unoptimised than you might remember.
I've been optimizing Shoreline when it first came out and it's been a complete trash, honestly. The developer man simply copy-pasted 2 varieties of rooms on Resort. Slippers, hairbrushes, 6 toothbrushes in one cup, glasses, papers - about 350 objects all together. So he simply copy-pasted it all everywhere.- EFT book is done and may go live mid-May.
The wings on Resort are mirrored, right? So he makes one wing and just mirrors it. And it wasn't stored in folders, it was just a bunch of files together. And I've been deleting these damn slippers for a week to optimize Shoreline. And then I was thinking that I've optimized it - was 15 FPS and became 17 FPS. Later they've done lots of other things to Resort.
Wish you could see what the detalisation was on Reserve. And the Labs, oh the Labs! Y'know that area with mechanical robot arms? It was completely different! It had 3-layer assembled lab boxes. Everything was being deleted and redone.
Tarkov book is completed. Right now proofreading and redacting is happening. And about the series - I hope it's going to go live mid-May.- New wave of players was very hard on BSG. Overall they increased the amount of servers from 17 to 170.
The Twitch Drops were complete bonkers. Thank God online has smoothen out. Before there were peaks - people come from work and start playing in different time. Lots of peaks that have been freaking us out, often during the night. And I remember - right before the New Year we all sat down together to think. 40k online and we are dead, our back-end is dead. And after New Year 60k came. After a week it was 80k. Another week it was 120k. Then it was 140k. And it all came down to 170k-180k online.- The first batch of merch is complete, but it's delayed because the site is not released yet.
And all this time we've been monitoring and raising servers from the dead non-stop. In short, we had 17 servers and got 170 servers. And it sucked so much, we had to work without weekends and breaks. Admins and back-end staff were constantly blaming themselves and each other, I've been screaming all the time. It was not cool. And we were DDoS'd around New Year almost every day. DDoS were the ones that cost 15-20k dollars.
It's really hard to deal with such big online amount and the game of such size. And you can say "uGh, WhY dOn'T yOu JuSt BuY aMaZoN sErVeRs?" They cost a shitload, that's why! 1,4 million dollars a year, I couldn't believe my eyes. So we continued to modify the system by buying more servers, finding bugs and building fail-safe security, fool-proof and fault-proof.
Merch is delayed because of coronavirus. The main problem is the site, they don't have the time to build it, to test it and finally release it. The first batch is complete, I'm sure it will sell out like hot cakes.- Bug abusers and skill grinders will be fought. Bug abusers can be reported after the introduction of the report system.
"What's your opinion on system abusers that grind the skills and raise them in a short amount of time? And do you have any plans for them?"- Bug bounty and rewards for finding them may be implemented in the future
"I have a negative opinion. I don't like when people play the game not the way it was intended. I am really sorry for you, the honest people, that play it fair. And those abusers later say something like "Ah, Ya DiDn'T sEt ThE pRoTeCtIoN, sO iT mEaNs It'S aLl LeGiT". For that I can say this - go fuck yourself, dear sirs. We'll be fighting you.
If you are using the bugs - after the patch there is going to be a report function for bug abuse. And we'll be banning for that. So please don't do it, just report the bug.
I've been suggested a lot of times an advanced system about bug bounty and rewards. So yes, eventually we'll do it. But it needs extra resources.- Dead PMC items won't be counted as found in raid because people may launder them. And BSG knows if you try to do shady trading on empty servers.
"Why the items from the dead PMC won't be counted as found in raid?"- Introduction of Captcha in Flea market. There will be different triggers for it.
"I'll say it again - you'll be able to trade items and launder them. But you can say "Oh, make it so it only applies to people in party". But no, people find their ways. They enter empty servers at night, empty maps like night time Factory.
And you know, it's all being monitored. We've banned so many bots, so many scripters.
Flea market will have Captcha. And there are different conditions for it to trigger. You refresh too often - get the Captcha. Buying too much - get the Captcha. Selling two times for the price much higher - get the Captcha and a note in back-end that you are a shady guy.- BSG won't protect you from unfair trades, it's in player's interest to be careful when using Flea market. And in 12.6 dollars and euros will have different colors.
"What about protection from unfair trades like cheap items in exhange for Red Rebel?"- Nikita hopes that people would find their own role in the world of EFT and stick to it
"This part is tightly knit around new wipe and its new found in raid only rule.
First, the items will be put on flea market with more care and more thought. So people will be more considerate.
Second, everything must be done in stages. You can't do anything all at once. We have lots of bugfixes and features planned, so we do them in batches.
We have a bunch of quality of life improvements, like metrics, fool proofs. In 12.6 dollars and euros are going to be differently colored, people have been asking for it for a long time.
We don't have the need to do it. Players must be vigilant and careful. Flea market is a place where you can be fooled easily and you need to be careful. People want super tools like automatic buy, buy orders, and so on so that they can become a magnate while picking their nose.
You can become rich, you'll learn the ropes and that will be your shtick in the world of EFT."
My ideal image would be that people in EFT would eventually pick people in clans and battle groups by their skills. Not like "Ah, Vasili is a cool guy" or "Oh, this one has lots of moneys". Like this guy can pick locks, this one runs fast, that one trades well. I want it to be like that, so everyone would have their own role. And replayability would be huge.- System with 2 playable characters in different realms is planned - one is permanent and one can be wiped
We'll introduce a system with two characters - one in a permanent realm and one realm being wiped constantly. Second one is just like it's going right now and the permanent one is going to be when you'll finish EFT. You can finish EFT when everything will be done - quests, story, etc.- Mobile app's functionality will be limited. Nikita would like to develop API for flea market monitoring services.
Mobile app had been planned a long time ago. It's functions will be limited - you won't be able to trade or go to hideout. At least we want the player to be able to get the insured items, get the sold items or renew the offers in flea market, check the flea market, look up the in-game encyclopedia. It won't have the full functionality so you'll have the full system without needing to enter the game.- Nikita threatens sites with Real Money Trading and cheat ads with potential lawsuit and shutdown.
Veritas is the guy we want to develop the system. But right now we don't have the time to do it all. He says he can do it all by himself, but I know he can't.
There is a site for monitoring flea market. How they do it is not right. For those kinds of people we would like to develop API. Because those services would potentially cease to exist because of constant updating and constant Captcha.
If the site is cool, we'll contact you and give you the flea market data. I think it's even going to be public - prices, items on sale, etc. People would be able to make applications tied to that data and we won't be against it. What we are against is when the ads are involved on such sites. Especially the advertisement of RMT.
If I see these RMT ads one more time I'm gonna tell our lawyers and we'll shut you all down. I know you guys want to earn the money. You have Patreon, you have donations, ads, all that stuff. I am not against it. What I'm against is the advertisement of this bullshit. Some even advertise cheats. So please be careful about that. We can easily shut you down even for the simple icon usage. Don't be dumb, don't get yourself in trouble.- API is going to be released eventually.
NoFoodAfterMidnight is parsing the data, datamining it. It's not right, but I'm not against it. I understand that they all have the same reason - "give us API". It's not like we don't want it, we simply have more important stuff to do. I thought we'll release API by 12.7. API will be released eventually, but please don't hurry us, we have more important things to do than additional resources.- BSG is against people bringing up datamined stuff. Nikita asks for people to be more positive and not blame the team constantly.
Some nasty people datamine developer objects that generate a wave of unnecessary questions that we need to answer and react to. And sometimes we don't have time to answer them.- There were many events BSG wanted to visit, but due to coronavirus it was all cancelled.
Bugusers find another bug and make a video on Youtube right away. What are you even doing? They all try to justify it by saying that they bring light and attention to it. You can't believe how hard it is to work when you need to fix something in a hurry.
There are sane people that know it needs to be fixed, but eventually. But some just start to blame us, call us dumbasses. It's unpleasant to hear. Sometimes you start to think why are we even doing it, who are we making the game for. It's hard. We have 100 people in staff. I can't just make a call-out for people to start working in 9 PM on Friday. I can't call and say "Sergey, what are you doing? Grilling? Drop what you are doing and go fix the shit!" But even that happens sometimes. When we were balancing back-end we had to get people from vacations. It's serious and people can't see what's hidden behind all this deal, how hard it is. People burn out, people quit because they can't endure it. And I personally feel bad about it. I wanted everything to be good, but the man quit. The man quits with pent up negativity, but I want others to feel positive, to know that they work in the best company in the world. Working tasks are okay, but when someone from outside starts to get on your nerves and throw unnecessary info at you, impose unnecessary actions at you it really sucks.
Someone might say "Why do you complain? You get the money for it!" I won't even leave comments to that.
People that want to stand up to the game, to protect it - please say something. Positive comments are much stronger than negative ones. I don't mean that you should be a fanboy. We make mistakes, we say bullshit. But we never thought and wanted to lie to someone and make money from them. You just want to make everything right. We are not the legendary studio that makes everything right, but we strive to become better.
The past year has been by far the most positive and productive ever. If not for the coronavirus and not for the cancellation of the events we wanted to visit, it would be even more amazing. But there are many things to come, it's not all lost.- First iteration of skill redesign is complete
"Is there any infomation regarding skills redesign?"- Underbarrel launchers are going to be added after BSG adds hand grenade launchers
"First iteration is complete. A part of skills will be redone - how they are leveled, bugs associated with them"
"When the new underbarrel launcher are going to be added in the game?"- VSS ammo nerf in 12.6
"First we plan to add hand grenade launchers. After that we'll add underbarrel launchers."
"Is there going to be a nerf to VSS?"- EFT release date unclear, will be announced after the completion of key features.
"There's been a work done to it in 12.6. I think it's about ammo damage."
"Nikita, you said that in May you may announce the date of release. Are you going to do it?"EDIT: Update on 12.6 being delayed - Pestily checked with Nikita directly and is saying that 12.6 is not delayed. But in my defence I can say that Nikita did indeed say that 12.6 is beying delayed right now. You can check it yourself, even if you don't speak Russian. Open the podcast at 19:33 mark and turn on auto-translated subtitles. It is a bit scuffed, but Nikita says what he says - "А по факту мы сейчас 12.6 задерживаем из-за того, что закрываем потенциально возможные дыры как можно эксплоитить функционал".
"I thought in that time I'll know for sure. But I can't say it right now. Because right now there are many things in EFT that need to be done. These are Streets of Tarkov, chest rig customization and story quests. These 3 features need to be complete before we announce the release date.
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-Driven DD), I'll be following up on a few posts I made a few weeks ago about what the stock market will look like over the next few weeks. Three weeks ago, I talked about the stock market needing consolidating, staying in between 272 and 293, which mostly stayed true (+- 2%). I then talked about the declining retail sentiment, which drove the stock market to euphoria levels, and how we won't be making any new highs in the bull rally we've been seeing any time soon, which also so far has held true. Let's take another look at potential catalysts that can cause us to break the channel that we've been in the past few weeks.submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
The WTI June oil futures contract will be expiring on May 19th. Everyone around the world remembered what happened when May oil futures expired - reality caught up. While futures prices can be driven by speculation, on expiration, it will need to converge with the real price (spot price) of oil based on supply and demand for it. Let’s see how crude prices have been for the June contract.
Oil Futures Contango
Looks like oil prices have recovered to pre-lockdown levels, with June contracts priced right under $30 / barrel. Super-contango seems to also be gone, with only a $0.09 difference between June and July contracts. Another way to think about this is that it should thus only cost $0.09 to store one barrel of oil for one month. Contrast this with April 21, where the difference between June and July contracts were more than $7 / barrel. This should put immense downwards pressure on oil storage spot prices, hence a decline in oil tanker stock prices due to expected lower revenue as a result of this.
So is the higher oil prices and decreased contango justified? Let’s look at some metrics published by the Department of Energy.
Refinery inputs and production
Crude Oil Stocks
Crude Oil Spot Prices
Crude inputs to refineries have decreased for the week of May 8 compared to May 1 by about 600kbpd, and is still below the 4-week moving average. Refinery capacity is also still moving on a downtrend, with a 68% utilization for the week of May 8, below the 71% utilization the week before and slightly below the 69% 4-week moving average. We do see a dramatic increase in motor fuel outputs, increasing by about 800kbpd in between weeks of May 8 and May 1, above the 4-week MA. This is likely due to lockdown restrictions being lifted across multiple states, and refineries increasing production in anticipation of increased motor fuel consumption.The decrease in crude inputs last week may indicate that they’ve been overly optimistic and have since decreased utilization.
Crude oil stocks are still increasing, with an additional 1.2M barrels compared to May 1, despite net oil imports decreasing. In Cushing, we do see oil stocks to finally be decreasing with a net change of 3M barrels being taken out of that area in between May 1 and May 8, probably in anticipation of futures contracts expiring. Stocks of motor gasoline are decreasing, indicating increased demand for it as lockdowns ended, and probably prompted refineries to increase production.
Overall, it seems like the story has been that oil demand is slowly restoring with states lifting lockdown, but not as fast as refiners are expecting. Despite decreased supply, crude oils stocks are still slowly increasing. Storage facilities in Cushing have shit their more together this time and are moving their oil stocks from Cushing towards other storage facilities with availability to avoid a storage squeeze like last time. Oil stocks are still increasing, but oil stocks are being allocated more efficiently to utilize excess capacity in other regions, especially away from Cushing, leading to a slowly increasing spot oil price in Cushing despite oil stocks nationwide oil stock increases.
COVID-19 and Lockdowns
The US is currently at approx. 1.5M confirmed cases, and 90K deaths.
US New Cases
We’re seeing a slow decline of new cases; i.e. “flattening the curve”. It doesn’t seem like new cases are being decreased significantly even during lockdown.
In New York, which has been hardest hit and still under lockdown, we see a significant decline.
New York New Cases
We see stay-at-home orders being lifted in several states, and most states reopening retail stores, as well as being in the process of opening dine-in restaurants back up.
States under lockdown
States with dine-in restaurants open
States with retail stores open
What has the effects of reopening been so far? Let’s look at one state, Georgia, which has been the earliest to reopen three weeks ago.
Georgia New Cases
Their new cases have remained effectively flat since re-opening. So while there hasn’t been a new surge in cases, their situation is not improving.
Italy, which has been one of the hardest hit countries, along with the United States, has seen a dramatic improvement with a steady and consistent decline of new cases, giving hope that the US, with a timeline a few weeks behind Italy, will soon be on the other side of the first wave. Italy started easing restrictions around May 4, with shops and restaurants planning to be re-opened by May 18.
Italy New Cases
On the other hand, Iran, a country that also was hit by COVID-19 earlier than the US is seeing another spike in cases and is already dealing with a second wave.
Iran New Cases
We’ll likely see lockdowns across multiple US states being lifted over the next few weeks.
The US has recently imposed export restrictions on Huawei that will prevent any chipmakers using American technology from making sales to it. In response, China may be putting American technology companies, including Apple, Qualcomm, and Cisco, on a “unreliable entity list”, which will apply very severe restrictions to those companies’ operations and trade within China.
Round 4 Stimulus
The house has recently passed a phase 4 stimulus bill, the HEROES Act, which will include many provisions including another $1200 check to everyone. This bill passed with Republican resistance, with a 208-199 vote. Most political analysts agree that this phase will take a long time to negotiate and won’t pass as quickly as previous phases, with it passing in June at the earliest.
Tech Antitrust Filings
A leak on Friday from the Justice Department indicates that antitrust lawsuits will be filed against Google later this year. Facebook, Amazon, and Apple are also currently under investigation and may also have antitrust suits filed against them at the same time.
Liquidity the Federal Reserve
The Fed recently published their financial stability report on Friday, which talks about the state of the economy, financial system, and gives forward guidance on what might happen next. Here’s a summary of the interesting parts of their report.
Vulnerabilities in the financial sectors
It also looks like the Fed is slowly winding down their “infinite QE” program, falling from a peak of $75B / day of purchases to $6B / day.
Fed Treasury Purchases
The Bigger Picture
We’re still seeing a slow net increase in oil stocks, despite the lower production and imports, as well as increased refinery utilization. However, oil is being stored more efficiently, with barrels being moved in places with a shortage capacity, like Cushing, to other places in the US. This, along with other actions recently taken by futures brokers, NYMEX, and USO, makes it a shock such as the one we saw when May contracts expired much less likely for the June contracts.
Nothing bad has yet to happen with states that have reopened, with daily increases stabilizing. We have yet to see if this translates to an economic recovery, and if current equity prices are justified. On the other hand, escalating US-China tensions around Huawei may further hurt equity valuations, especially technology companies, which seem to be possible targets of China for retaliation. The confirmation of antitrust filing to at least one tech giant, and the likelihood of further filings for other giants, may also further hurt stock prices in the tech sector, where equity valuations have declined the least throughout the crisis.
The Federal reserve is slowly winding down their QE, and warning that there are still substantial prices in the credit markets and that asset valuations may see a dramatic decrease. From the fiscal side, although a phase 4 stimulus is being considered and has passed the house, it is unlikely we will see this pass anywhere as quickly as the other rounds.
The market has already seemed to price in lifting of lockdowns, combined with weakening monetary stimulus and uncertainty about the possibility of further fiscal stimulus, provides a weak bullish case for further upside in equities. In the meanwhile, potential shocks from antitrust actions and Chinese retaliation to large technology monopolies, which consists of more than a fifth of the S&P500, along with a potential second wave, such as seen in Iran, can be a catalyst to break below 272.
Magic Markers and My Personal Strategy
For those interested in what I'll be personally doing, and those that have been following me, I'm currently holding SPY puts and VIX calls (among other positions) which I entered back when SPY hit 293, although I did exit my shorter-term SPY puts on Friday after fucking up and missing my exit on Thursday after not following my own strategy that I wrote.
The 1D MACD on both /ES and SPY did crossover to bearish, with a larger volume than previous days, which makes me confident that over the medium-term we'll be seeing a downtrend, and is one of the things I need to confirm a drop below 272 for the next drop.
On the short-term, the 1H MACD is bullish, meaning we're going to need to consolidate over the next day or two. That being said, RSI is heading towards overbought territory.
Looking at the 15M chart, we've already hit overbought territory, and MACD is turning bearish.
This probably means we're going to be opening somewhere below 288 on SPY tomorrow. Depending on how futures act overnight, we'll probably either see a trading range of 285 - 290 or 278 - 285, depending if we open above or below 285. My strategy is to hold my longer-dated SPY puts and VIX calls, and re-enter my short-dated spreads when SPY RSI is overbought again on the 1H chart or 1H MACD crosses over again.
As with my posts the last few weeks, I'll be updating this post with a regular updates on what my magic marker horoscope says.
P.S. - I got alot of invites and requests to just form a Discord channel with TA updates and thoughts. Although I was originally considering moving this to Discord, I've decided against it since you should not be basing your trading strategy on what some person on the internet is saying, and I'm personally very against trading chat rooms. This is your own money and you should be doing your own DD. If you were going to be spending thousands of dollars on buying something, you would probably be spending hours doing your own research on which product to buy and pros and cons of buying something - this should be no different. I'll post these for inspiration, and to help teach everyone reading how to do their own research, but this is by no means a recommendation on what you should do. Form your own opinions; it's your money.
EDIT - Updates
5/18 Market Open - Well was not expecting that. There goes my price range and saying we're not seeing 293 again. Going to still go with my earlier thesis that 293 is a strong resistance and it'll be hard to close outside of the 293-274 channel (+-2) so bought some SPY 287p put spreads today expiring on Friday. Looks like this gap up was caused by vaccine news.
5/18 10:30AM - Looks like oil is in backwardation now?
This is usually indicative of a shortage of crude oil. This seems very unlikely considering what happened the past few months. Something weird is going on here
5/18 2PM - At 295 right now. I'm going to need a reversal back below this price to still be confident about the thesis. There's alot of momentum in the 1H MACD for the bullish case. For the bearish case, 15M MACD is back to bearish, and we're oversold on 15M and 1H. We also still have 1D MACD bearish still, although it will crossover tomorrow unless we end lower and have a red day tomorrow. Regardless, it's dumb to sell when RSI is overbought in multiple time frames, so I'm going to be selling all my bearish positions when I see RSI go back out from overbought territory if
5/18 3:30PM - Looks like tomorrow will have a trading range of 300-293 unless we see a major reversal. This bull really might stop there. If I can't find an exit before we hit that level, I'll probably instead close out the bottom portion of the put spread (i.e. close my put sell) instead at 300. If we make it past 300, idk wtf is going on and I'll just going to liquidate my portfolio and hold cash until this market makes sense again. Even at a rebound of 300, unless I see 1D MACD cross over again, I'll probably be looking for an exit to sell my remaining positions at a good price and hold cash for a while.
5/18 Market Close - Saw a reversal at 295.00. Although still not looking good for my thesis, massive selling at market close and a close not too far above the resistance level means this could have been another fake out, similar to April 29's rally. My thesis is still on shaky ground, and I'll we'll need to see a gap down tomorrow for this to be confirmed a fake out. Otherwise, I'm going to stick with my exit strategy mentioned above to stop losses some time this week.
5/18 6:30PM - What happens tonight and tomorrow will determine if there's still a bearish case. We need to close below 294 tomorrow and have a red day, giving us a clear rejection, for any hope of a bearish trend in the near term. Here's the reasons why a close below 294 is needed soon for any near-term downtrend
5/19 Noon - Sold all my May contracts, still holding some VIX calls and longer-dated SPY puts. Still a slim chance for a bearish thesis if we have a massive reversal later today, but this is starting to look more unlikely. Based on technicals, we are borderline oversold on the 1H with short-term momentum in 15M. This means that we'll probably see a consolidation day today where we just move sideways for most of the day. 1H MACD is still bullish, so it's unlikely we'll be 294. Trading range is 294-300, likely to be constrained in the lower half of it (i.e. 294-297).
I'll probably start looking into September VIX calls if SPY reaches 300, anticipating the second wave, and then sign off
5/19 3:15PM - Looking at the 15M chart, it looks like 294 is now becoming a strong resistance - even worse sign for the bear case.
5/19 3:40 - Massive red candle bringing us below 294, with a 1H MACD bearish crossover. If we break below 293, I'm buying back those puts. Will probably wait until 3:55 for that
5/19 3:50 - Got 293/274p 5/22 debit spreads. Short-term bearish thesis still holds if we don't see a massive green candle at the last minute
5/19 4PM - Looks like bears have won today and have prevented bulls from taking back control of medium-term sentiment - 1D MACD hasn't crossed. Bears also have short term sentiment, on the 1H and 15M charts, on both /ES and SPY. Going to see a big red day tomorrow. Trading range 293-285.
Interesting watch - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqrjTCPiVcw&t=334s, Cramer doing some TA himself, with similar conclusions about the importance of the 274-293 channel, albiet using the 200SMA instead of 200EMA, which is at 300 instead of 294. Good second opinion on TA, especially since Cramer tends to have a bullish bias.
5/20 9:15AM - Futures and pre-market back above 295. The good news is that 296 is looking to be the next resistance level in SPY. Even though bears got a sliver of hope yesterday, still on shaky grounds. Really depends on what happens in the first hour. I guess trading range is now 296-285 now, likely to be contained in the upper half (ie. 296-291)
5/20 9:45AM - Same thing as yesterday, need to see a close below 294 for the bearish case. Otherwise, looking for an exit again. About to see 15M and 1H MACD cross over, 1D and 1W is in the middle of crossing over. Bears won the battle yesterday, but I jumped the gun a bit on calling victory for the bears.
5/20 1PM - Looking like we might see a reversal later today with bearish 15M. 1H MACD has been in a battle between bulls and bear all day. Will liquidate my positions as soon as bulls get a decisive victory on this, since it'll likely mean that they also get 1D and 1W MACD as well. If bears finally win 1H decisively we might see a reversal again, unless we see a random gap up again like today.
5/20 3:50PM - Last hope here for my long stated puts and VIX calls are the fact that we still have a bearish 1H MACD and 1D MACD can reverse again. Exiting those positions as well if 1H crosses back to bullish
5/20 8PM - At this point I don't think there's any hope for the bearish case anymore since 1D is pretty solidly back to bullish. New channel seems to be 293-300. 1H MACD is turning bearish, so we might see the bottom of that channel tomorrow. Exiting the remaining positions at 293. Going back to plays on individual tickers again; looking at GSX puts right now. I'll be back at SPY when I see another crossover in 1D MACD; Lesson learned - better to be too late than too early. Will be waiting for 3 consistent days of a 1D MACD crossover next time before entering put positions. It doesn't look like rug pull isn't happening until everyone starts realizing another wave of lock downs is happening in fall - even the Fed isn't accounting for these in their economic models saying we're going to recover in Q3 despite all the health officials saying it will happen.
5/21 Midnight - Someone pointed out to me that we've reached a DeMark Countdown 13 sell signal. While I have heard of Demark Sequential indicators, and know that they are generally accepted to be a reliable quantative indicator and used in many institutions, I personally don't understand why and how this works. Here's a slideshow I found from a quick Google Search of this indicator explaining how it works
My best understanding is that it tracks a new trend building (i.e. "Setup" phase). Once a trend has been set up, it does a "count down" to track when the trend has run out of momentum; this is what the DeMark indicator is indicating right now. It suggests that the bull trend we have been having for the past few weeks has run out of momentum according to this algorithm. This is generally seen as a "sell signal" according to Demark, and means a reversal is imminent.
I personally have no idea how it works and is not intuitive to me at all, but this guy is also regarded to be the best Technical Analyst in the world. I'll still continue with my existing strategy of selling most of my positions at 293, but if this sell signal is valid, the 1D MACD should crossover again soon; If it does so with convinction, I'll re-enter.
5/21 10:30AM - Still planning on exiting half of my remaining positions at 293 today. Bears are winning momentum on 1h, but bulls have solidly gained back control of 1D. We'll be at 300 this week. What about after 300? At first, I was convinced that SPY will be going all the way back to new ATHs, but then I saw QQQ. which is within 5% of new ATHs. Since QQQ and SPY have very similar components and tend to be correlated in price actions, it's very likely that SPY 300 will bring QQQ to either a new ATH, or extremely close to the old highs. This by itself can act as another psychological resistance, especially if we break new ATHs, and might be a sign for some investors to exit as they realize that there's not really any room for the bullish case left, and that the stock market is definitely becoming a bubble; especially in QQQ. Nobody is going to be setting their price targets above ATH during the halftime break of a wave of COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns. At this point, this isn't TA but just speculation based on psychology (which is the foundation of TA) but this situation is unprecedented so noone has any idea how the stock market is going to react. This can take several days to weeks to play out, so will be sitting mostly on the sidelines until I see evidence of bears taking over 1D again. Even though that fundamentals is clearly bearish, I don't want to fight the trend.
5/21 6:30PM - I've exited the remaining SPY puts I was holding when SPY fell below 294. Looking at /ES and SPY 1H and 15M MACD we'll be in a period of consolidating for tomorrow as well and remain in the bottom half of the channel tomorrow (i.e. 293-297), as we were the past few days, based on slow bearish momentum that's turning bullish again. I think we'll need to reach SPY 300 and QQQ 238 (a new ATH) before we see a bearish case again. While it's possible to shoot past SPY 300, it will be extremely hard since at that point QQQ would be reaching new ATHs. There will also be very strong resistance there, although at this point this rally can no longer be called a bull rally, shooting past the 62% fib retracement, and instead this is a legitimate bull trend. To see another downtrend we'll need some major fundamental catalyst, the most likely cases being something significant events happening with US-China relations, a wave of lockdowns happening in Europe again (China already started seeing this), or a spike in cases in the US. This can take weeks, but I'll be keeping a close eye on SPY during this time for new medium-term entries. I might also play the channel with small amounts of single-day options if I see very good entry points, likely puts if we spike right above 300. Even though I'm personally still bearish and do think the possible downside action is much greater than to the upside, I no longer see this happening for the next week or so, so I'm exiting to have a better entry later on and not have my money slowly disappear from theta. I'll keep this thread updated, but not as frequently for those still interested.
5/21 Market Open - bearish MACD on 15M and 1H SPY. Will probably re-test 293, and based on historical strong resistance, bounce back. I'll sell my remaining VIX calls on that low. Still a 293-297 trading range for today
FX Trendroid is such a powerful auto trading tool that makes profit quickly and makes the investment growth steady. The new version (FX Trendroid) is specially designed for all types of traders including small and big traders. EA works very well on all MT4 account types and minimum $90 deposit is needed. Automated Trading Software Automated Forex Trading, also known as algorithmic trading, is the use of Expert Advisors (EA’s) or trading robots to place trades and orders in the market automatically without the manual interaction of the trader. This allows trading systems to run autonomously 24/5. Auto Trading is a trading type that use computer-based softwares to automatically execute trading actions in forex market. Automated trading is becoming more and more popular nowadays. Being able to trade forex automatically is important when you are working with a solid strategy. Automated FX trading systems allow you to free yourself from your computer monitor, while the software scans the market, looks for trading opportunities and makes trades on your behalf. In addition, MetaTrader 4 & 5 applications on iPhone, Android and tablet allow you to easily monitor your trading account wherever you are. Live trading results– It is common for robot sellers to promise a winning ratio of 90-99%, however, this figure can be very deceiving. In order to be certain that we only recommend the best Forex robots and auto trading software, we decipher whether this ratio is based on real-time or simulated trading.
[index]          
Learn more here: https://bit.ly/2O5HwLI Do Forex Robots make more money than manual traders? That's exactly what I discuss in this video! We Compare Automate... Initial set up of MetaTrader 4 platform to allow auto trading from trendlines using FX AlgoTrader's Trendline Trade Pro expert advisor. For more information ... In this video learn about The Best Forex Trader Hands Free EA Auto Trader Review Using The UOP FX Scalp King and AZHA Software Results! Check out both EA's below. ️The Calloway Crypto System FREE Account: http://www.cryptobinarylivingway.com/TheCallowayCryptoSystem 💵BinBot Pro FREE Account: http://www.cryptobinaryliv... #Binary #IQ option Please Subscribe http://bit.ly/2DBZhzv Download the free bot below this link: http://gestyy.com/w5SXqY To get the 1000% EA bot MT4. Email ...